March 04, 2008 · 02:45 PM

No Tipping Point

Just got back from Berlin on a quite windy flight on which I read an article by Clive Thomson in Fast Company negating the tipping point paradigm brought to public by Malcolm Gladwell a few years ago. In his bestseller he laid the basis for viral marketing and reaching out for influentials who would set trends which then disseminate. In contrast Duncan Watts, a Yahoo-sponsored researcher shows that trends actually are not made by influencers. Watts argues that societies are much to complex as that a small group of influencers could amplify them and he builds computer models to prove.

Yet trends emerge if the public is susceptible to the "virus" or the product as you will. Very interesting and it reminds me of a conversation I had with a immunologist lately on how viruses spread. He told me that it depends very much on whether the organism is again "susceptible". I think this can also be oberved in public opinion. If there is a certain Stimmung, news have more impact than others.

Watts conclusion for marketing btw is that the best impact is achieved by combining traditional mass marketing - reach out as many consumer as you can - with instruments that let consumers drive a trends further e.g. by sending a product-related piece to their friends. What do you think about this theory? Do you know a successful campaign that combines these features?

 

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Tags: Clive Thomas·Duncan Watts·Malcolm Gladwell·tippin